Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 73

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

(1:39) 2-A.Lee punts 53 yards to KC 20, Center-46-A.Brewer. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 18 for -2 yards (92-D.Gardeck).

The Three Options

GO -2.53 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.04 EP
66% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 73, worth -4.41 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model