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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 28

Kansas City Chiefs 10 – Arizona Cardinals 7

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 7-H.Butker 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.25 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.98 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 28, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.47 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 38, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT +0.41 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model