Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- Neutral site — no home-field edge
- LV offense: -0.149 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)
- SEA offense: -0.092 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- SEA crossing 8 time zone(s)
- LV defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 6
SEA
OAK
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 07:29 TD SEA (7:29) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 18-J.Brown for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. SEA 6 – OAK 0
- Q2 14:17 TD SEA (14:17) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson to LV 25 for -6 yards. FUMBLES, and recovers at LV 27. 3-R.Wilson pass deep middle to 83-D.Moore for 19 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Wilson bobbled the low shotgun snap SEA 13 – OAK 0
- Q2 00:04 FG SEA (:04) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 17 – OAK 0
- Q3 11:45 FG SEA (11:45) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson. SEA 20 – OAK 0
- Q4 15:00 TD SEA (15:00) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 16-T.Lockett for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-P.Hall]. SEA 26 – OAK 0
- Q4 08:30 FG LV (8:30) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.McCrane 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. SEA 27 – OAK 3
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LV 4th & 9 at the 74Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34%
(5:47) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 28 yards to SEA 46, Center-47-T.Sieg, out of bounds.
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Q1 SEA 4th & 18 at the 62Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 25%
(3:23) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 50 yards to LV 12, Center-69-T.Ott, out of bounds.
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Q2 LV 4th & 18 at the 30Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 20% p(FG) 74%
(6:22) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.McCrane 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 7 at the 46Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 33%
(4:16) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to LV 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.
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Q2 LV 4th & 1 at the 41Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 66% p(FG) 46%
(:46) 4-D.Carr up the middle to SEA 41 for no gain (54-B.Wagner). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
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Q2 SEA 4th & 5 at the 26Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 81%
(:04) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q3 SEA 4th & 7 at the 8Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EPp(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%
(11:45) (Field Goal formation) 11-S.Janikowski 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-4-M.Dickson.
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Q3 LV 4th & 11 at the 57Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29%
(9:03) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 37 yards to SEA 20, Center-47-T.Sieg. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 20 for no gain (50-N.Morrow).
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Q3 LV 4th & 3 at the 65Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 51%
(3:39) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 27 yards to SEA 38, Center-47-T.Sieg, downed by LV-41-K.Smith.
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Q4 LV 4th & 12 at the 24Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 24% p(FG) 84%
(8:30) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.McCrane 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.