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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 18 at the 30

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Seattle Seahawks 14

What Actually Happened

(6:22) (Field Goal formation) 3-M.McCrane 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO -0.11 EP
  • 20% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +5.08 EP
  • 80% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 30, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 40, worth -1.93 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model