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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Seattle Seahawks 4th & 7 at the 46

Seattle Seahawks 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(4:16) (Punt formation) 4-M.Dickson punts 36 yards to LV 10, Center-69-T.Ott, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.45 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.22 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 13, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model