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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 11 at the 57

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Seattle Seahawks 20

What Actually Happened

(9:03) (Punt formation) 5-J.Townsend punts 37 yards to SEA 20, Center-47-T.Sieg. 16-T.Lockett to SEA 20 for no gain (50-N.Morrow).

The Three Options

GO -1.12 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.05 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Seattle Seahawks takes over around their own 57, worth -2.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Seattle Seahawks would take over around their own 17, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model