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Indianapolis Colts

HC Frank Reich
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New York Jets

HC Todd Bowles
Sunday 2018-10-14 · 13:00 MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford US ☀️ Clear Spread 2.5 O/U 47.5

Win Probability

IND
49.3%
NYJ
50.7%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.122 EPA/play over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
  • QB edge to IND: Sam Darnold (NYJ) -0.032 vs Andrew Luck (IND) +0.141 EPA/dropback
  • NYJ defense: -0.060 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • IND defense: +0.071 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • IND offense: -0.024 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • IND on 3 more days rest than NYJ

Predicted Final Score

IND 22
–
NYJ 23
Projected margin: NYJ by 1 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 6

IND

Denico Autry DT Out Hamstring
Jack Doyle TE Out Hip
Matthias Farley S Out Shoulder
Clayton Geathers S Out Concussion
T.Y. Hilton WR Out Chest
Denzelle Good T Out Not Injury Related
Eric Ebron TE Questionable Shin
Darius Leonard LB Questionable Ankle
Arthur Maulet CB Questionable Hip
Michael Mitchell S Questionable Pectoral
Margus Hunt DT Questionable Knee
Ryan Kelly C Questionable Calf

NYJ

Charone Peake WR Out Hamstring
Buster Skrine CB Out Concussion
Trumaine Johnson CB Doubtful Quadricep
Kevin Pierre-Louis LB Doubtful Foot
Isaiah Crowell RB Questionable Ankle
Marcus Maye S Questionable Ankle
Doug Middleton S Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 6 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

IND 34
–
NYJ 42

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 31 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 14:55 TD NYJ (14:55) 12-A.Luck pass short left intended for 25-M.Mack INTERCEPTED by 21-M.Claiborne (33-J.Adams) at IND 17. 21-M.Claiborne for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 0 – NYJ 6
  • Q1 12:23 TD IND (12:23) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass deep middle to 16-M.Johnson for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN [92-L.Williams]. IND 6 – NYJ 7
  • Q1 04:35 FG NYJ (4:35) 2-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. IND 7 – NYJ 10
  • Q2 13:27 FG IND (13:27) 4-A.Vinatieri 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 10 – NYJ 10
  • Q2 11:27 FG IND (11:27) 4-A.Vinatieri 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez. IND 13 – NYJ 10
  • Q2 02:39 TD NYJ (2:39) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short middle to 16-T.Pryor for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – NYJ 16
  • Q2 01:29 FG NYJ (1:29) 2-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. IND 13 – NYJ 20
  • Q2 00:03 FG NYJ (:03) 2-J.Myers 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. IND 13 – NYJ 23
  • Q3 12:10 TD NYJ (12:10) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 89-C.Herndon for 32 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 13 – NYJ 29
  • Q3 08:50 TD IND (8:50) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 85-E.Ebron for 18 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 19 – NYJ 30
  • Q3 03:57 FG NYJ (3:57) 2-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. IND 20 – NYJ 33
  • Q4 14:54 TD IND (14:54) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short left to 86-E.Swoope for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 26 – NYJ 33
  • Q4 09:44 FG NYJ (9:44) 2-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. IND 27 – NYJ 36
  • Q4 05:58 FG NYJ (5:58) 2-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. IND 27 – NYJ 39
  • Q4 03:22 FG NYJ (3:22) 2-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards. IND 27 – NYJ 42
  • Q4 02:00 TD IND (2:00) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass short middle to 80-C.Rogers for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. IND 33 – NYJ 42

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 96%

    (4:35) 2-J.Myers 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q1 IND 4th & 8 at the 69
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (2:30) 2-R.Sanchez punts 48 yards to NYJ 21, Center-46-L.Rhodes. 19-A.Roberts to NYJ 27 for 6 yards (30-G.Odum; 52-N.Goode).

  • Q2 IND 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 98%

    (13:27) 4-A.Vinatieri 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 95%

    (11:27) 4-A.Vinatieri 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-2-R.Sanchez.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 78
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (8:51) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to IND 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-85-N.Sterling.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 18 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 75%

    (1:29) 2-J.Myers 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q2 IND 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:50) 2-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to NYJ 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 91%

    (3:57) 2-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 2 at the 27
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.71 EP
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 81%

    (9:44) 2-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 4 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 91%

    (5:58) 2-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

  • Q4 IND 4th & 4 at the 69
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 48%

    (5:25) (Shotgun) 12-A.Luck pass incomplete deep middle to 14-Z.Pascal [92-L.Williams].

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 20% p(FG) 81%

    (3:22) 2-J.Myers 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.