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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 78

New York Jets 10 – Indianapolis Colts 13

What Actually Happened

(8:51) 4-L.Edwards punts 43 yards to IND 35, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-85-N.Sterling.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.28 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 78, worth -4.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 35, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.40 EP