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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 19

New York Jets 30 – Indianapolis Colts 20

What Actually Happened

(3:57) 2-J.Myers 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +5.16 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 19, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 29, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model