Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 73

Indianapolis Colts 13 – New York Jets 20

(:50) 2-R.Sanchez punts 45 yards to NYJ 28, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.15 EP
63% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 73, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model