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Oakland Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2018-10-07 · 16:05 StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread 5.5 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

OAK
22.0%
LAC
78.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • LV offense: -0.165 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.286 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • LAC offense: +0.089 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

OAK 17
–
LAC 26
Projected margin: LAC by 9 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 5

OAK

Karl Joseph S Out Hamstring
Kelechi Osemele G Questionable Knee

LAC

Travis Benjamin WR Out Foot
Joey Bosa DE Out Foot
Kyzir White LB Out Knee
Joe Barksdale T Doubtful Knee
Russell Okung T Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2018 week 5 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

OAK 10
–
LAC 26

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:14 FG LAC (11:14) 6-C.Sturgis 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. OAK 0 – LAC 3
  • Q2 13:27 FG LV (13:27) 3-M.McCrane 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend. OAK 3 – LAC 3
  • Q2 04:14 TD LAC (4:14) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler for 44 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-M.Lee]. OAK 3 – LAC 9
  • Q2 01:42 TD LAC (1:42) 28-M.Gordon right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 3 – LAC 16
  • Q3 06:09 FG LAC (6:09) 6-C.Sturgis 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones. OAK 3 – LAC 20
  • Q4 09:51 TD LAC (9:51) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 88-V.Green for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 3 – LAC 26
  • Q4 05:13 TD LV (5:13) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 82-J.Nelson for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. OAK 9 – LAC 26

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 11 at the 31
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 72%

    (11:14) 6-C.Sturgis 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31%

    (8:01) 5-J.Townsend punts 51 yards to LAC 13, Center-47-T.Sieg. 20-D.King to LAC 21 for 8 yards (17-D.Harris).

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 11 at the 45
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 35%

    (3:36) 5-D.Jones punts 27 yards to LV 18, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 98%

    (13:27) 3-M.McCrane 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 2 at the 68
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (11:13) 5-D.Jones punts 59 yards to LV 9, Center-47-M.Windt. 17-D.Harris to LV 11 for 2 yards (30-A.Ekeler).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 3 at the 82
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 53%

    (8:50) 5-J.Townsend punts 50 yards to LAC 32, Center-47-T.Sieg. 20-D.King to 50 for 18 yards (25-E.Harris).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 12 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 20%

    (7:51) 5-D.Jones punts 43 yards to LV 9, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

  • Q2 LV 4th & 7 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (6:20) 5-J.Townsend punts 46 yards to LAC 42, Center-47-T.Sieg. 20-D.King to LAC 45 for 3 yards (85-D.Carrier; 17-D.Harris).

  • Q2 LV 4th & 4 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 51%

    (:11) 3-M.McCrane 57 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-5-J.Townsend.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 17 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (13:34) 5-J.Townsend punts 50 yards to LAC 30, Center-47-T.Sieg. 20-D.King to LAC 36 for 6 yards (85-D.Carrier). PENALTY on LAC-48-N.Dzubnar, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 36.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 12
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.37 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 95%

    (6:09) 6-C.Sturgis 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

  • Q4 LV 4th & 4 at the 21
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 88%

    (7:09) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short middle to 10-S.Roberts to LAC 14 for 7 yards (37-J.Addae).