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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 31

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 6-C.Sturgis 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-5-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.85 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model