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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 11 at the 45

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 5-D.Jones punts 27 yards to LV 18, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 17-D.Harris.

The Three Options

GO -0.17 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.81 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.05 EP
KICK -0.85 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.27 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.55 EP
PUNT -0.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 12, worth -0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model