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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 7 at the 88

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – Los Angeles Chargers 3

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 5-J.Townsend punts 46 yards to LAC 42, Center-47-T.Sieg. 20-D.King to LAC 45 for 3 yards (85-D.Carrier; 17-D.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.46 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 88, worth -5.09 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 46, worth -2.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model