Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- LAC offense: +0.152 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
- LA defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
- LAC defense: -0.084 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
- LA offense: +0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
- QB edge to LAC: Jared Goff (LA) +0.204 vs Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.281 EPA/dropback
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 3
LAC
LA
Pulled fresh for 2018 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 13 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:19 TD LA (6:19) 30-T.Gurley up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 0 – LA 6
- Q1 04:50 TD LAC (4:50) 17-P.Rivers pass deep middle to 81-M.Williams for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – LA 7
- Q1 00:55 TD LA (:55) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 17-R.Woods for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – LA 13
- Q2 07:50 TD LA (7:50) 8-D.Kaser punt is BLOCKED by 58-C.Littleton, Center-47-M.Windt, RECOVERED by LA-24-B.Countess at LAC -6. TOUCHDOWN. LAC-8-D.Kaser was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. LAC 6 – LA 20
- Q2 03:20 TD LAC (3:20) 28-M.Gordon left end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 12 – LA 21
- Q3 12:51 TD LA (12:51) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass deep right to 18-C.Kupp for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [42-U.Nwosu]. LAC 13 – LA 27
- Q3 08:28 TD LAC (8:28) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 81-M.Williams for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 19 – LA 28
- Q3 03:24 TD LA (3:24) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-R.Woods for 6 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 20 – LA 34
- Q4 11:54 FG LAC (11:54) 6-C.Sturgis 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser. LAC 23 – LA 35
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 LAC 4th & 5 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 47%
(12:15) 8-D.Kaser punts 52 yards to LA 19, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Natson to LA 20 for 1 yard (42-U.Nwosu).
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Q2 LAC 4th & 6 at the 71Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 44%
(14:47) 8-D.Kaser punts 50 yards to LA 21, Center-47-M.Windt. 19-J.Natson to LA 28 for 7 yards (31-A.Phillips).
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Q2 LAC 4th & 7 at the 96Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 45%
(7:50) 8-D.Kaser punt is BLOCKED by 58-C.Littleton, Center-47-M.Windt, RECOVERED by LA-24-B.Countess at LAC -6. TOUCHDOWN. LAC-8-D.Kaser was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
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Q2 LA 4th & 3 at the 28Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 48% p(FG) 80%
(:04) 5-S.Ficken 46 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-6-J.Hekker.
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Q3 LAC 4th & 2 at the 20Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 56% p(FG) 90%
(8:28) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep left to 81-M.Williams for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
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Q4 LAC 4th & 8 at the 8Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32% p(FG) 97%
(11:54) 6-C.Sturgis 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.
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Q4 LA 4th & 18 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26%
(7:49) 6-J.Hekker punts 49 yards to LAC 29, Center-44-J.McQuaide. 89-J.Jones to LAC 40 for 11 yards (11-K.Hodge).
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Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 19 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 35% p(FG) 91%
(4:41) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler to LA 13 for 6 yards (43-J.Johnson, 58-C.Littleton). FUMBLES (43-J.Johnson), RECOVERED by LA-93-N.Suh at LA 12. 93-N.Suh to LA 12 for no gain (81-M.Williams).