4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 8

Los Angeles Chargers 20 – Los Angeles Rams 35

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 6-C.Sturgis 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-8-D.Kaser.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.90 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 8, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model