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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 96

Los Angeles Chargers 6 – Los Angeles Rams 14

What Actually Happened

(7:50) 8-D.Kaser punt is BLOCKED by 58-C.Littleton, Center-47-M.Windt, RECOVERED by LA-24-B.Countess at LAC -6. TOUCHDOWN. LAC-8-D.Kaser was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 89, worth +0.71 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 96, worth -5.85 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (113 yards).

PUNT -2.94 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 53, worth -2.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model