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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 19

Los Angeles Chargers 23 – Los Angeles Rams 35

What Actually Happened

(4:41) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 30-A.Ekeler to LA 13 for 6 yards (43-J.Johnson, 58-C.Littleton). FUMBLES (43-J.Johnson), RECOVERED by LA-93-N.Suh at LA 12. 93-N.Suh to LA 12 for no gain (81-M.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 12, worth +4.96 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 19, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 26 after the kickoff, worth +2.13 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 29, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EP