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Cleveland Browns

HC Hue Jackson
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Los Angeles Chargers

HC Anthony Lynn
Sunday 2017-12-03 · 16:05 StubHub Center, Carson US ☀️ Clear Spread 13.5 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

CLE
13.2%
LAC
86.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • CLE offense: -0.214 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to LAC: Philip Rivers (LAC) +0.169 vs DeShone Kizer (CLE) -0.274 EPA/dropback
  • LAC offense: +0.100 EPA/play over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.125 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LAC on 3 more days rest than CLE

Predicted Final Score

CLE 17
–
LAC 31
Projected margin: LAC by 14 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

CLE

Sammie Coates WR Out Knee

LAC

Mike Williams WR Out Back
Casey Hayward CB Questionable Calf
Corey Liuget DT Questionable Toe
Nick Novak K Questionable Back

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 10
–
LAC 19

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 19 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 09:06 FG LAC (9:06) 5-T.Coons 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. CLE 0 – LAC 3
  • Q2 03:50 FG LAC (3:50) 5-T.Coons 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. CLE 0 – LAC 6
  • Q2 02:00 TD CLE (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-D.Kizer pass deep middle to 85-D.Njoku for 28 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. CLE 6 – LAC 6
  • Q2 00:04 FG LAC (:04) 5-T.Coons 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. CLE 7 – LAC 9
  • Q3 10:40 TD LAC (10:40) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 13-K.Allen for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 7 – LAC 15
  • Q3 01:06 FG LAC (1:06) 5-T.Coons 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. CLE 7 – LAC 19
  • Q4 12:08 FG CLE (12:08) 5-Z.Gonzalez 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt. CLE 10 – LAC 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 53%

    (9:58) 4-B.Colquitt punts 35 yards to LAC 4, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-56-D.King.

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 2 at the 20
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 90%

    (2:21) 5-T.Coons 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 63% p(FG) 63%

    (13:31) 29-D.Johnson Jr. up the middle to LAC 37 for -2 yards (54-M.Ingram).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 98%

    (9:06) 5-T.Coons 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (7:22) 4-B.Colquitt punts 38 yards to LAC 40, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 3 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 88%

    (3:50) 5-T.Coons 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 4 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 47% p(FG) 63%

    (12:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 13-K.Allen to CLE 9 for 26 yards (30-J.McCourty). Penalty on CLE-30-J.McCourty, Illegal Contact, declined.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 7 at the 60
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (8:17) 4-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to LAC 16, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 12-T.Benjamin to LAC 25 for 9 yards (87-S.DeValve, 49-J.Keyes).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 6 at the 9
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.33 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 97%

    (1:06) 5-T.Coons 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 10 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 92%

    (12:08) 5-Z.Gonzalez 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-4-B.Colquitt.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 7 at the 35
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 63%

    (9:58) 8-D.Kaser punts 31 yards to CLE 4, Center-47-M.Windt, downed by LAC-48-N.Dzubnar.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 4 at the 63 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 50%

    (2:21) 8-D.Kaser punts 42 yards to CLE 21, Center-47-M.Windt. 29-D.Johnson Jr. to CLE 33 for 12 yards (43-M.Davis).