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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 35

Los Angeles Chargers 9 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(12:11) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 13-K.Allen to CLE 9 for 26 yards (30-J.McCourty). Penalty on CLE-30-J.McCourty, Illegal Contact, declined.

The Three Options

GO +1.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +4.00 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.48 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model