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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 22

Los Angeles Chargers 3 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 5-T.Coons 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +1.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.78 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 88% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 32, worth -1.57 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP