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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 2 at the 20

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(2:21) 5-T.Coons 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +2.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.96 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 20, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.93 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.28 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30, worth -1.11 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP