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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Dirk Koetter
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Atlanta Falcons

HC Dan Quinn
Sunday 2017-11-26 · 13:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta US 🏟 Dome Spread 10.5 O/U 47.0

Win Probability

TB
34.3%
ATL
65.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to ATL: Matt Ryan (ATL) +0.187 vs Ryan Fitzpatrick (TB) -0.012 EPA/dropback
  • TB offense: -0.056 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • ATL offense: +0.032 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

TB 21
–
ATL 25
Projected margin: ATL by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

TB

Robert Ayers DE Out Concussion
Vernon Hargreaves CB Out Hamstring
Evan Smith G Out Concussion
Jameis Winston QB Out right Shoulder
William Gholston DE Questionable Neck

ATL

Ty Sambrailo T Out Hamstring
Devonta Freeman RB Out Concussion

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 20
–
ATL 34

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 8 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:50 FG TB (9:50) 7-P.Murray 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 3 – ATL 0
  • Q1 03:56 FG ATL (3:56) 3-M.Bryant 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. TB 3 – ATL 3
  • Q2 12:44 TD ATL (12:44) Direct snap to 12-M.Sanu. 12-M.Sanu pass deep left to 11-Ju.Jones for 51 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – ATL 9
  • Q2 07:35 TD ATL (7:35) 2-M.Ryan pass deep left to 11-Ju.Jones for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 3 – ATL 16
  • Q2 01:40 FG TB (1:40) 7-P.Murray 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger. TB 6 – ATL 17
  • Q2 00:05 FG ATL (:05) 3-M.Bryant 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. TB 6 – ATL 20
  • Q3 10:09 TD ATL (10:09) 26-T.Coleman left guard for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – ATL 26
  • Q3 06:12 TD TB (6:12) 77-C.Benenoch reported in as eligible. 25-P.Barber left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 12 – ATL 27
  • Q4 13:53 TD TB (13:53) 25-P.Barber left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 19 – ATL 27
  • Q4 02:00 TD ATL (2:00) 26-T.Coleman right end for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – ATL 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 TB 4th & 4 at the 18
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 92%

    (9:50) 7-P.Murray 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 31
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 76%

    (3:56) 3-M.Bryant 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 14 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:43) 9-B.Anger punts 45 yards to ATL 23, Center-65-G.Sanborn, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 8 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:03) 5-M.Bosher punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (14:15) 9-B.Anger punts 56 yards to ATL 22, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-A.Roberts ran ob at ATL 40 for 18 yards (9-B.Anger).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 14 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (10:50) 9-B.Anger punts 59 yards to ATL 20, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 19-A.Roberts pushed ob at ATL 28 for 8 yards (52-C.Lynch).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (1:40) 7-P.Murray 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 8 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 33%

    (2:37) 5-M.Bosher punts 49 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 18
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 92%

    (7:10) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Brate (22-K.Neal) [92-D.Poe].

  • Q4 TB 4th & 10 at the 35 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.53 EP
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 68%

    (:21) (Shotgun) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass short left to 10-A.Humphries to ATL 25 for 10 yards (23-R.Alford).