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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 31

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 3

What Actually Happened

(3:56) 3-M.Bryant 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.25 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 31, worth -1.08 EP
KICK +1.32 EP
What Happened
  • 76% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 24% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 41, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.62 EP