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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20 – Atlanta Falcons 27

What Actually Happened

(7:10) 14-R.Fitzpatrick pass incomplete short middle to 84-C.Brate (22-K.Neal) [92-D.Poe].

The Three Options

GO +2.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.62 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 18, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.57 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -1.31 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model