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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 18

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(9:50) 7-P.Murray 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-9-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.92 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 18, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 92% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model