Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DAL offense: +0.046 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- DAL defense: +0.053 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- LAC offense: +0.021 EPA/play over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- LAC defense: -0.092 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
- Philip Rivers (LAC): +0.116 EPA/dropback in prior starts
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 12
LAC
DAL
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 21 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q2 02:00 FG LAC (2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-N.Novak 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens. LAC 3 – DAL 0
- Q3 09:06 TD LAC (9:06) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short middle to 86-H.Henry for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 9 – DAL 0
- Q3 01:52 TD LAC (1:52) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass deep right to 16-Ty.Williams for 27 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Ball caught in front-right corner of the endzone. LAC 15 – DAL 0
- Q4 12:51 TD DAL (12:51) (No Huddle) 45-R.Smith up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 16 – DAL 6
- Q4 10:10 TD LAC (10:10) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 13-K.Allen for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 22 – DAL 6
- Q4 08:00 TD LAC (8:00) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left intended for 11-C.Beasley INTERCEPTED by 20-D.King at LAC 10. 20-D.King for 90 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 28 – DAL 6
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DAL 4th & 1 at the 70Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.06 EPp(convert) 71%
(13:07) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 57 yards to LAC 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 3 at the 17Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EPp(convert) 48% p(FG) 93%
(9:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-N.Novak 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.
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Q1 DAL 4th & 13 at the 51Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 29%
(3:56) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to LAC 7, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-35-K.Frazier.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 13 at the 16Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 26% p(FG) 94%
(13:36) (Shotgun) 17-P.Rivers pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler to DAL 4 for 12 yards (27-J.Lewis).
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Q2 DAL 4th & 6 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42%
(9:02) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to LAC 30, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, out of bounds.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%
(2:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-N.Novak 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 33%
(:25) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 33 yards to LAC 16, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 13 at the 44Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 45%
(5:53) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 36 yards to LAC 8, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.