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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 44

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 9

What Actually Happened

(5:53) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 36 yards to LAC 8, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 12-T.Benjamin.

The Three Options

GO -0.47 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.92 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 44, worth -2.14 EP
KICK -0.43 EP
  • 45% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.25 EP
  • 55% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model