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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 3 at the 17

Los Angeles Chargers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(9:03) (Field Goal formation) 9-N.Novak 35 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-47-M.Windt, Holder-10-K.Clemens.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.92 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 17, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.44 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 27, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP