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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 13 at the 51

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:56) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to LAC 7, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-35-K.Frazier.

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.59 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 51, worth -2.54 EP
KICK -1.15 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.30 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model