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Green Bay Packers

HC Mike McCarthy
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2017-11-26 · 20:30 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US ☀️ Clear Spread 14.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

GB
24.0%
PIT
76.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Brett Hundley (GB): -0.294 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • PIT defense: -0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • GB offense: -0.035 EPA/play over its last 8 games (17th in the league)
  • PIT on 3 more days rest than GB

Predicted Final Score

GB 18
–
PIT 27
Projected margin: PIT by 9 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 12

GB

Aaron Jones RB Out Knee
Kenny Clark DT Doubtful Ankle
Ty Montgomery RB Doubtful Ribs
Clay Matthews LB Questionable Groin
Morgan Burnett S Questionable Groin
Kevin King CB Questionable Shoulder
Devante Mays RB Questionable Ankle
Corey Linsley C Questionable Back
Lucas Patrick G Questionable Hand

PIT

Joe Haden CB Out Fibula
Vance McDonald TE Out Ankle
JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Out Hamstring
Michael Mitchell S Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

GB 28
–
PIT 31

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:19 TD PIT (8:19) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 85-X.Grimble for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 0 – PIT 6
  • Q1 04:53 TD GB (4:53) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass deep left to 18-R.Cobb for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 6 – PIT 6
  • Q1 01:33 TD GB (1:33) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass short middle to 30-J.Williams for 54 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 13 – PIT 6
  • Q2 07:26 TD PIT (7:26) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep left to 10-M.Bryant for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 14 – PIT 12
  • Q3 12:17 TD GB (12:17) (Shotgun) 7-B.Hundley pass deep right to 17-D.Adams for 55 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 20 – PIT 14
  • Q3 00:54 TD PIT (:54) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 84-A.Brown for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. GB 21 – PIT 20
  • Q4 08:50 TD PIT (8:50) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass deep right to 84-A.Brown for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 21 – PIT 27
  • Q4 02:08 TD GB (2:08) (Shotgun) 30-J.Williams up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. GB 27 – PIT 28
  • Q4 00:04 FG PIT (:04) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. GB 28 – PIT 31

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 98%

    (8:19) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short middle to 85-X.Grimble for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 2 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.46 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 47%

    (12:08) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to GB 5, Center-57-K.Canaday, downed by PIT-88-D.Heyward-Bey.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP
    p(convert) 46%

    (10:25) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 45 yards to PIT 45, Center-61-B.Goode. 84-A.Brown to GB 20 for 35 yards. PENALTY on PIT-29-B.Allen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 45. Penalty on PIT-33-F.Toussaint, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (3:46) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 48 yards to PIT 16, Center-61-B.Goode. 84-A.Brown to PIT 23 for 7 yards (35-J.Whitehead).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 7 at the 43
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 42%

    (1:13) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 33 yards to GB 10, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q3 GB 4th & 18 at the 39
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 53%

    (4:20) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 16 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27%

    (15:00) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 46 yards to PIT 35, Center-61-B.Goode, fair catch by 84-A.Brown. PENALTY on GB-22-A.Ripkowski, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 35.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 12 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 95%

    (2:50) (Pass formation) 7-B.Hundley pass short left to 17-D.Adams to PIT 4 for 8 yards (22-W.Gay).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 46 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 34%

    (1:21) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 28 yards to GB 18, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 81 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:27) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 53 yards to PIT 28, Center-61-B.Goode. 84-A.Brown to PIT 30 for 2 yards (11-T.Davis).