Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 46

Pittsburgh Steelers 28 – Green Bay Packers 28

(1:21) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 28 yards to GB 18, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 11-T.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +1.64 EP
68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 46, worth -1.53 EP

KICK -0.23 EP

34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.43 EP
66% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.62 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model