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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 90

Green Bay Packers 14 – Pittsburgh Steelers 6

What Actually Happened

(10:25) (Punt formation) 8-J.Vogel punts 45 yards to PIT 45, Center-61-B.Goode. 84-A.Brown to GB 20 for 35 yards. PENALTY on PIT-29-B.Allen, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PIT 45. Penalty on PIT-33-F.Toussaint, Illegal Block Above the Waist, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 85, worth +0.63 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 90, worth -5.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (107 yards).

PUNT -2.96 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 47, worth -2.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.34 EP