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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 18 at the 39

Green Bay Packers 21 – Pittsburgh Steelers 14

What Actually Happened

(4:20) (Field Goal formation) 2-M.Crosby 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-J.Vogel.

The Three Options

GO -0.87 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.32 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.28 EP
KICK -0.53 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.92 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model