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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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Washington Commanders

HC Jay Gruden
Sunday 2017-11-12 · 13:00 FedExField, Landover US ☀️ Clear Spread -1.0 O/U 43.0

Win Probability

MIN
43.1%
WAS
56.9%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN on 7 more days rest than WAS
  • MIN defense: -0.100 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • WAS defense: -0.043 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 21
–
WAS 23
Projected margin: WAS by 2 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

MIN

Mike Remmers T Out Concussion
Jeremiah Sirles G Out Knee
Anthony Harris S Questionable Hamstring
Stephen Weatherly DE Questionable Knee
Everson Griffen DE Questionable Foot

WAS

Matt Ioannidis DE Out Hand
Arthur Jones DT Out Shoulder
Niles Paul TE Questionable Concussion
Jordan Reed TE Questionable Hamstring
Zach Brown LB Questionable Ankle
Jamison Crowder WR Questionable Hamstring
Shawn Lauvao G Questionable Stinger
Spencer Long C Questionable Knee
Morgan Moses T Questionable Ankle
Montae Nicholson S Questionable Shoulder
Ty Nsekhe T Questionable Core Muscle
Brian Quick WR Questionable Concussion
Brandon Scherff G Questionable Knee
Trent Williams T Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2017 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 38
–
WAS 30

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 24 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 11:03 TD WAS (11:03) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 13-M.Harris. Washington challenged the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 13-M.Harris for 36 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 0 – WAS 6
  • Q1 08:21 TD MIN (8:21) 25-L.Murray up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – WAS 7
  • Q1 00:11 FG WAS (:11) 6-N.Rose 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. MIN 7 – WAS 10
  • Q2 11:49 TD MIN (11:49) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short left to 14-S.Diggs for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on MIN-14-S.Diggs, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. MIN 13 – WAS 10
  • Q2 04:50 TD WAS (4:50) 8-K.Cousins left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. QB sneak MIN 14 – WAS 16
  • Q2 01:55 TD MIN (1:55) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short right to 19-A.Thielen for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 20 – WAS 17
  • Q2 00:25 TD MIN (:25) 7-C.Keenum pass short middle to 89-D.Morgan for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 27 – WAS 17
  • Q3 12:27 TD MIN (12:27) (Shotgun) 7-C.Keenum pass short right to 17-J.Wright for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 34 – WAS 17
  • Q3 08:28 FG WAS (8:28) 6-N.Rose 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. MIN 35 – WAS 20
  • Q4 14:50 TD WAS (14:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins left end to MIN 1 for 1 yard (99-D.Hunter). FUMBLES (99-D.Hunter), RECOVERED by MIN-34-A.Sendejo at MIN 0. 34-A.Sendejo for 100 yards, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 35 – WAS 26
  • Q4 07:50 FG MIN (7:50) 2-K.Forbath 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley. MIN 38 – WAS 27
  • Q4 01:20 FG WAS (1:20) 6-N.Rose 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. MIN 38 – WAS 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 61
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (6:14) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to MIN 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 18 for 9 yards (57-N.Sundberg).

  • Q1 MIN 4th & 7 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (4:50) 4-R.Quigley punts 41 yards to WAS 38, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 2 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 65%

    (1:14) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass deep right to 25-C.Thompson ran ob at MIN 8 for 27 yards.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 10 at the 10
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 96%

    (:11) 6-N.Rose 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 1 at the 5
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 98%

    (6:25) 32-S.Perine right end to MIN 1 for 4 yards (22-H.Smith).

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.79 EP
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 98%

    (8:28) 6-N.Rose 21 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 6 at the 32
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 72%

    (:34) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 80-J.Crowder (96-B.Robison).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 11 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 65%

    (7:50) 2-K.Forbath 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-K.McDermott, Holder-4-R.Quigley.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 33 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 70%

    (4:48) 25-C.Thompson right end to MIN 37 for -4 yards (92-T.Johnson).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 60 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (3:50) 4-R.Quigley punts 38 yards to WAS 22, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 10 at the 65 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:48) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 85-V.Davis to 50 for 15 yards (24-T.Brock).