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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 61

Washington Commanders 7 – Minnesota Vikings 7

What Actually Happened

(6:14) 5-T.Way punts 52 yards to MIN 9, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 35-M.Sherels pushed ob at MIN 18 for 9 yards (57-N.Sundberg).

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.33 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 61, worth -3.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.26 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 20, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.91 EP