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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 32

Washington Commanders 20 – Minnesota Vikings 35

What Actually Happened

(:34) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short right to 80-J.Crowder (96-B.Robison).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.36 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 32, worth -1.44 EP
KICK +0.85 EP
Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.01 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 42, worth -2.14 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model