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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 7 at the 60

Minnesota Vikings 38 – Washington Commanders 27

What Actually Happened

(3:50) 4-R.Quigley punts 38 yards to WAS 22, Center-47-K.McDermott, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

The Three Options

GO -1.30 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.15 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 60, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 19, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model