Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- DAL offense: +0.088 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
- Matt Ryan (ATL): +0.205 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- ATL offense: +0.040 EPA/play over its last 8 games (7th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 10
DAL
ATL
Pulled fresh for 2017 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 06:26 TD DAL (6:26) 4-D.Prescott scrambles right end for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – ATL 0
- Q1 00:02 FG ATL (:02) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. DAL 7 – ATL 3
- Q2 01:34 TD ATL (1:34) 26-T.Coleman right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – ATL 9
- Q3 08:31 TD ATL (8:31) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 14-J.Hardy for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 7 – ATL 16
- Q4 13:53 TD ATL (13:53) 63-B.Garland and 92-D.Poe reported in as eligible. 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 81-A.Hooper for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DAL-35-K.Frazier, Defensive Holding, declined. DAL 7 – ATL 23
- Q4 08:32 FG ATL (8:32) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher. DAL 7 – ATL 27
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 DAL 4th & 14 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 51%
(9:15) 6-C.Jones punts 32 yards to ATL 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 19-A.Roberts.
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Q1 ATL 4th & 2 at the 32Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EPp(convert) 57% p(FG) 74%
(:02) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q2 DAL 4th & 13 at the 42Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 29% p(FG) 51%
(11:06) 6-C.Jones punts 40 yards to ATL 2, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-25-X.Woods.
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Q2 ATL 4th & 19 at the 78Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 27%
(7:07) 5-M.Bosher punts 41 yards to DAL 37, Center-47-J.Harris. 10-R.Switzer to DAL 48 for 11 yards (53-L.Reynolds; 80-L.Toilolo).
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Q2 DAL 4th & 16 at the 58Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(5:05) 6-C.Jones punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.
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Q3 DAL 4th & 18 at the 20Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 22% p(FG) 91%
(2:34) 2-M.Nugent 38 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 19 at the 84Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28%
(12:33) 6-C.Jones punts 41 yards to ATL 43, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-59-A.Hitchens.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 6 at the 11Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%
(8:32) 3-M.Bryant 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.
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Q4 DAL 4th & 6 at the 20 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.41 EPp(convert) 38% p(FG) 91%
(4:17) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott sacked at ATL 31 for -11 yards (50-B.Reed). Penalty on DAL-75-B.Bell, Offensive Holding, declined.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 12 at the 71 late-gameChose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 32%
(4:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to DAL 27, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL.
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Q4 ATL 4th & 14 at the 31 late-gameChose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.64 EPp(convert) 26% p(FG) 76%
(1:07) 40-D.Coleman right guard to DAL 26 for 5 yards (54-J.Smith).