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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 16 at the 58

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Atlanta Falcons 3

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 6-C.Jones punts 58 yards to end zone, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.08 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 58, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model