Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 12 at the 71

Atlanta Falcons 27 – Dallas Cowboys 7

(4:00) 5-M.Bosher punts 44 yards to DAL 27, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL.

The Three Options

GO -2.45 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.61 EP
68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 71, worth -3.92 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model