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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 32

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Dallas Cowboys 7

What Actually Happened

(:02) 3-M.Bryant 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-5-M.Bosher.

The Three Options

GO +1.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.98 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 32, worth -0.98 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 74% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.50 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 42, worth -1.68 EP
PUNT +0.45 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth +0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.42 EP