HOU @ TEN — 4th & Data

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HC Bill O'Brien

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Tennessee Titans

HC Mike Mularkey

Sunday 2017-01-01 · 13:00 Nissan Stadium, Nashville US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.0 O/U 41.5

Win Probability

HOU

41.0%

TEN

59.0%

☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

HOU offense: -0.063 EPA/play over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
TEN offense: +0.066 EPA/play over its last 8 games (9th in the league)
TEN defense: +0.040 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
HOU defense: -0.083 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
QB edge to HOU: Matt Cassel (TEN) -0.137 vs Brock Osweiler (HOU) -0.137 EPA/dropback (TEN starting Matt Cassel in place of Marcus Mariota; HOU starting Brock Osweiler in place of Tom Savage)

Predicted Final Score

HOU 20

–

TEN 22

Projected margin: TEN by 2 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 17

HOU

Jadeveon Clowney DE Out Elbow

Lamar Miller RB Out Ankle

Jay Prosch RB Out Ankle

John Simon LB Out Chest

Johnathan Joseph CB Questionable Ribs / Shoulder / Illness

Brian Cushing LB Questionable Ankle

TEN

Jason McCourty CB Questionable Chest

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 17 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

HOU 17

–

TEN 24

Prediction missed by 5 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

Q1 10:04 TD TEN (10:04) (Shotgun) 3-T.Savage sacked at HOU 7 for -8 yards (55-S.Spence). FUMBLES (55-S.Spence) [55-S.Spence], RECOVERED by TEN-90-D.Jones at HOU 0. TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – TEN 6
Q2 00:27 TD TEN (:27) (Shotgun) 16-M.Cassel pass short right to 18-R.Matthews for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 0 – TEN 13
Q3 10:39 TD HOU (10:39) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 87-C.Fiedorowicz for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TEN-54-A.Williamson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. HOU 6 – TEN 14
Q3 04:49 TD TEN (4:49) 22-D.Henry left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 7 – TEN 20
Q3 01:15 FG HOU (1:15) (Field Goal formation) 8-N.Novak 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. HOU 10 – TEN 21
Q4 08:34 FG TEN (8:34) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern. HOU 10 – TEN 24
Q4 03:18 TD HOU (3:18) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler scrambles up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. HOU 16 – TEN 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

Q1 TEN 4th & 3 at the 61

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53%

(11:24) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 47 yards to HOU 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.
Q1 HOU 4th & 3 at the 80

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP

p(convert) 55%

(8:05) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to TEN 36, Center-46-J.Weeks. 87-M.Mariani to HOU 46 for 18 yards (43-C.Moore).
Q1 TEN 4th & 18 at the 44

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 24% p(FG) 39%

(4:45) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 30 yards to HOU 14, Center-48-B.Brinkley, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.
Q1 HOU 4th & 7 at the 83

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 41%

(3:40) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 49 yards to TEN 34, Center-46-J.Weeks. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 41 for 7 yards (43-C.Moore).
Q1 TEN 4th & 7 at the 56

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 38%

(2:38) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 44 yards to HOU 12, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 19 for 7 yards (59-W.Woodyard).
Q2 HOU 4th & 1 at the 61

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 70%

(15:00) 3-T.Savage up the middle to HOU 41 for 2 yards (99-J.Casey). HOU-3-T.Savage was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.
Q2 HOU 4th & 6 at the 34

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 37% p(FG) 65%

(10:48) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler sacked at TEN 40 for -6 yards (24-D.Stafford).
Q2 HOU 4th & 3 at the 27

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 48% p(FG) 80%

(4:27) (Field Goal formation) 8-N.Novak 45 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Right Upright, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
Q2 TEN 4th & 3 at the 58

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 53%

(3:20) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to HOU 10, Center-48-B.Brinkley, out of bounds.
Q2 HOU 4th & 17 at the 97

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 29%

(2:43) (Punt formation) 9-S.Lechler punts 49 yards to TEN 48, Center-46-J.Weeks. 87-M.Mariani to HOU 36 for 16 yards (33-A.Hunt).
Q3 HOU 4th & 4 at the 4

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

(10:39) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass short middle to 87-C.Fiedorowicz for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TEN-54-A.Williamson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
Q3 HOU 4th & 8 at the 8

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%

(1:15) (Field Goal formation) 8-N.Novak 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler.
Q4 TEN 4th & 17 at the 17

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 22% p(FG) 92%

(8:34) (Field Goal formation) 4-R.Succop 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-B.Brinkley, Holder-6-B.Kern.
Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 7

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 64% p(FG) 97%

(5:32) (No Huddle) 28-A.Blue left tackle to TEN 5 for 2 yards (99-J.Casey).
Q4 HOU 4th & 1 at the 1 late-game

Chose GO ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 63% p(FG) 98%

(3:18) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler scrambles up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
Q4 TEN 4th & 9 at the 61 late-game

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model

p(convert) 35%

(1:05) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to HOU 19, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 18 for -1 yards (89-P.Supernaw).
Q4 HOU 4th & 16 at the 73 late-game

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.46 EP

p(convert) 27%

(:23) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler pass incomplete short middle to 15-W.Fuller (98-B.Orakpo).