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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 61

Tennessee Titans 24 – Houston Texans 17

What Actually Happened

(1:05) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 42 yards to HOU 19, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 18 for -1 yards (89-P.Supernaw).

The Three Options

GO -1.20 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.56 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 61, worth -2.14 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 20, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model