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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 6 at the 34

Houston Texans 0 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(10:48) (Shotgun) 17-B.Osweiler sacked at TEN 40 for -6 yards (24-D.Stafford).

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +3.99 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 34, worth -2.09 EP
KICK -0.00 EP
  • 65% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 35% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 44, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model