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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 7

Houston Texans 10 – Tennessee Titans 24

What Actually Happened

(5:32) (No Huddle) 28-A.Blue left tackle to TEN 5 for 2 yards (99-J.Casey).

The Three Options

GO +3.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.43 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 7, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +2.08 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model