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Washington Commanders

8-6-1 HC Jay Gruden
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Chicago Bears

3-12 HC John Fox
Saturday 2016-12-24 · 13:00 ET Soldier Field, Chicago US 🌨 Snow Spread -3.0 O/U 49.0

Win Probability

WAS
64.0%
CHI
36.0%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • CHI offense: -0.058 EPA/play over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)
  • Kirk Cousins (WAS): +0.227 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • CHI defense: +0.057 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

WAS 25 18–32
–
CHI 22 15–29
Projected margin: WAS by 3 Projected total: 47

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 16

WAS

Su'a Cravens S Out Upper Arm
Quinton Dunbar CB Out Concussion
Colt McCoy QB Questionable Illness
Jordan Reed TE Questionable Shoulder
Terence Garvin LB Questionable Illness
Chris Baker DE Questionable Ankle
Will Compton LB Questionable Knee
Ryan Kerrigan LB Questionable Elbow
Martrell Spaight LB Questionable Shoulder

CHI

Eddie Goldman DT Out Ankle
Eric Kush G Out Concussion
Bryce Callahan CB Questionable Knee
Ka'Deem Carey RB Questionable Shoulder
David Fales QB Questionable right Thumb
Cre'von LeBlanc CB Questionable Knee
Cornelius Washington DE Questionable Back
Willie Young LB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2016 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 41
–
CHI 21

Prediction missed by 17 pts on margin, 15 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:48 TD WAS (7:48) (Shotgun) 25-C.Thompson right tackle for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – CHI 0
  • Q1 01:05 TD WAS (1:05) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass short right to 25-C.Thompson for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 13 – CHI 0
  • Q2 10:12 FG WAS (10:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 17 – CHI 0
  • Q2 06:27 TD CHI (6:27) 68-M.McCants reported in as eligible. 33-J.Langford left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 17 – CHI 6
  • Q2 01:48 TD WAS (1:48) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins right end for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 23 – CHI 7
  • Q2 00:41 TD CHI (:41) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass deep right to 81-C.Meredith for 21 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 24 – CHI 13
  • Q3 03:10 TD WAS (3:10) 79-T.Nsekhe reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. WAS 30 – CHI 14
  • Q4 12:57 FG WAS (12:57) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 34 – CHI 14
  • Q4 01:26 TD CHI (1:26) (Shotgun) 12-M.Barkley pass short right to 14-D.Thompson for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 34 – CHI 20
  • Q4 01:08 TD WAS (1:08) 34-M.Brown left tackle for 61 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 40 – CHI 21

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 6 at the 57
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.36 EP
    p(convert) 44%

    (12:48) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 49 yards to CHI 8, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 45-B.Addison to CHI 11 for 3 yards (50-M.Spaight).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 7 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (11:26) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to WAS 35, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 80-J.Crowder.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 CHI 4th & 4 at the 4
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.58 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 98%

    (3:26) (Field Goal formation) 4-C.Barth 22 yard field goal is BLOCKED (94-P.Smith), Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 WAS 4th & 5 at the 11
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 96%

    (10:12) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 CHI 4th & 1 at the 52
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 25%

    (11:47) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 31-C.Prosinski. 31-C.Prosinski right guard to 50 for 2 yards (48-L.Trail).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 91%

    (1:03) 79-T.Nsekhe reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 85-V.Davis.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 1 at the 1
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +2.21 EP
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 98%

    (12:57) (Field Goal formation) 3-D.Hopkins 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 WAS 4th & 5 at the 49
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 32%

    (6:34) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to CHI 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →