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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 52

Chicago Bears 14 – Washington Commanders 24

What Actually Happened

(11:47) (Punt formation) Direct snap to 31-C.Prosinski. 31-C.Prosinski right guard to 50 for 2 yards (48-L.Trail).

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.87 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 52, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.53 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.12 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 15, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model