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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 19

Washington Commanders 31 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(1:03) 79-T.Nsekhe reported in as eligible. 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete deep right to 85-V.Davis.

The Three Options

GO +2.99 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.73 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 19, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 29, worth -1.44 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model