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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 49

Washington Commanders 34 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(6:34) (Punt formation) 5-T.Way punts 34 yards to CHI 15, Center-57-N.Sundberg, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.74 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 14, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.45 EP